Opinion

The War In Ukraine And Its Impacts On Africa (3)

Published

2 years ago

April 12, 2022

NewTimes

Dele Jegede In Conversation With Prince Yemisi Shyllon

On the economic end, Russia and Algeria partner on the latter’s abundant energy sector. The Russian company, Gazprom, had won several contracts for exploration and development, but Russia’s position as the European Union’s largest gas supplier cast doubts on the potential of this relationship. Russia singlehandedly supplies 16 percent of Europe’s gas, with Algeria trailing behind. In 2021, 83 percent of Algeria’s gas exports headed to Europe, Italy, and Spain, receiving 65 percent of that intake. The country has three pipelines conveying gas to Europe, out of which two are active. Transmed, the largest of the two, has a capacity of 32 billion cubic meters (bcm), with 22 billion bcm used. The second, MedGaz, conveys gas to Spain. Algeria is one of the world’s largest producers of natural gas, and it hopes to wield this position in replacing Russia in the EU. Preoccupied with war and economic sanctions, Russia’s gas supply is severely impacted, leading to a surge in energy prices and forcing European nations to find new markets. Algeria positions itself as a ready alternative and is already receiving yields along that line. Italy has entered new supply deals already, and government revenues are expected to record an uptick. Algerian oil now sells for five times its value in April 2020 during the height of the pandemic. And to establish itself in the European market, it is moving towards a rise in production levels.

However, despite Algeria’s apparent prospects, its ability to fill Russia’s void is in doubt. Sonatrach, the state-run energy company, has been wracked by mismanagement and leadership instability. The company has had seven CEOs in ten years, and operators in the energy sector decry bureaucratic bottlenecks and unfavorable policies. There is also the technical aspect wherein active extraction fields are already at near-maximum production capacity, and a supply increase would require the exploration of new fields. Here, again, Algeria confronts issues. The North African region is experiencing an extended drought, and water scarcity threatens stability. Attempts by the government to explore local communities may be met by stiff resistance, one which it is looking to avoid.

In addition, local consumption of energy products has risen beyond previous levels. Between 2013 and 2018, domestic gas usage increased by 10 percent, and the figure is projected to reach 50 percent by 2028. While Algeria has made advances in the utilization of renewable energy, these efforts are too minimal to augment local energy consumption. Nonetheless, Algeria’s willingness to exploit the opening was palpable in its reaction. Before the war, the government instituted measures to cut subsidies totaling $17 billion during years of peak oil prices and planned tax increases. The pandemic dented its revenues further, and its foreign currency reserves took a dive. But once prices began to rise, the government reversed its position on taxation and subsidies and set up a stipend for unemployed youth. Algeria has argued that it will be unaffected by the absence of grain imports from Russia and Ukraine. Yet, there is some skepticism around this. It is expected that rising food prices will counteract Algeria’s gains in the energy sector. There are also debates on Moscow’s view of its partner’s plans to replace it in the European market.

READ ALSO: The War In Ukraine And Its Impacts On Africa (2)

The War and Other African Countries
Although North Africa is unique in terms of its climate, political, and staple food peculiarities, countries in other African regions are affected in some similar ways. For example, imports provide 84 percent of wheat demand in East Africa. Russia and Ukraine supply 90 percent of the wheat in the region. Therefore, like their North African counterparts, East African countries are expected to feel some of the war’s impacts. However, depending on the level of dependence, impacts will vary across countries. The situation in Kenya is likely to have a political undertone as parties settle into the election year. Citizens are forced to pay higher prices for fuel and food, and politicians will be looking to manipulate the crisis to their advantage or incite outrage for doing nothing. Kenya’s export of tea, coffee, flowers, and fruits worth around $88 million has been affected by Western sanctions on Russia. Its grain imports from Russia and Ukraine will also take a hit as the countries implement an export ban. Buyers from Russia, the fifth largest consumer of Kenyan tea, were noticeably absent at an exhibition of Kenyan agricultural products to potential export partners.

Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, has refrained from a pointed criticism of Russia. Since its vote in support of the UN resolution, Nigeria has focused on evacuating its students from the embattled country. The West African nation is similarly expected to reap gains from the rise in energy prices. It slid into a recession that lasted several years after an oil price crash in 2014. Its economy has also been affected by the coronavirus, truncating efforts at revival. The war is expected to reflect on the Ajaokuta steel mines project, which was slated to receive Russian inputs.

Countries like Mali and the Central Africa Republic may witness a diversion of Russian attention to its war effort. In CAR, Russian mercenaries from Wagner Group, the private military company headed by Yevgeny Prigozhin and believed to be a state proxy, are assisting its counterterror efforts. Russia’s involvement in the Republic is seen as an attempt to frustrate the French, who have been active in the region for years. There is also the ulterior motive of exploiting CAR’s minerals as a quid pro quo for the military backing.

READ ALSO: The War In Ukraine And Its Impacts On Africa (1)

In Mali, the situation is not much different. The Malian military junta headed by Assimi Goita ousted the democratically elected government of Ibrahim Boubacar Keita. And while the action has seen some support at the grassroots, there are insinuations that the coup was influenced by Russia. The coup leaders had been on a training programme in Russia, only to execute the overthrow within a week of their return. Regardless, the coup comes on the back of growing discontent at the presence of French troops in the country. Locals perceive the French as reminders of their colonial history and doubt their ability to end terrorism. Aiding this are grumbles against the utilization of the CFA Franc, a currency pegged to the Euro and controlled by France’s central bank. This economic bond is seen as a neocolonization effort, a continuous target of dissatisfaction. The junta has asked that France and its European allies withdraw their troops, paving the path for the entry of Russian mercenaries. A possible connection has also been established between the Burkinabe coup leader, Colonel Henri-Paul Sandaogo Damiba and Goita of Mali. Both were said to have received Russian military training, and Damiba was stated to have pushed for the engagement of Russian mercenaries in the local security crisis weeks before the coup.

Africa’s Relationship with Europe in the Context of the War
Africa’s partnership with Europe has been punctuated by promises and refreshed agreements for many years. There is distrust in Europe’s dedication to fulfilling its promises and a leaning toward Chinese and Russian powers as a result. There are also stringent loan requirements that countries find difficult to meet, particularly the assessment of human rights records. A less officious partner is found in China, whose loan terms and investment commitments over the years are viewed as outstripping Europe’s.

Although Russia lags well behind investments by Europe and the United States, abstentions by African countries at the UN are argued to have been informed by a desire for balance. Countries in Africa and the Middle East would rather maintain the bipolar world order than a circumstance where the US is solely dominant. African nations are also unwilling to return to the Cold War era when loyalties were corralled to either side of the divide. Maintaining relations with the US and Russia helps secure countries’ positions, preventing a reliance on one single power. However, it is notable that African abstentions dropped from 26 during the annexation of Crimea in 2014 to 17 during a full-scale invasion. Analysts have suggested that the reasons are not farfetched; while African nations are particular about their diplomatic relationships, breaches of sovereignty are untenable to them. This is as many African nations that possess little in terms of military might and are averse to compromising any country’s territorial integrity.

A potential impact of the war on Europe-Africa relations is the diversion of critical foreign aid from the African continent. The European Union (EU) will likely increase financial support to Ukraine in the aftermath of the war, and money committed to investing in Africa will reduce. The EU also has to tackle the pre-existing effects of the pandemic and the long-term impacts of the war on prices and various economic sectors. It will concentrate on reorienting its trade relationships such that dependence on actors like Russia is minimal. These efforts are certain to reflect on Africa.

Nevertheless, there are trust gaps to be filled. The stance of the United States and Europe comes with a hypocritical lining. The American invasion of Iraq in 2003 and its reaction during the Cuban missile crisis of the Cold War cast doubts on the honesty of their position. Even closer to home is the more recent invasion of Libya, from which the country continues to stagger. Many may also feel uncertain about the outcome of a weakened Russia, a dynamic that is sure to benefit no other than the West itself. Thus, in the face of an unreliable partnership, African nations have to decide what best works for them.

It would also be remiss to exclude the condescension of the West to Africa’s foreign policy. Rather than acknowledge the reasons for discontent, the West finds it convenient to talk African nations into “seeing reason.” Diplomats are quick to note the benefits of taking sides with the American position while playing down the specific interests and concerns of their African counterparts. Added to this are reactions in Western media to conflict in Europe. Journalists commenting on the situation personify Africa and the Middle East as the natural epicenters of conflict. Fault lines have also been exposed in the Ukrainian security officials’ racist treatment of foreign students. The combination of these factors inquires into the West’s view of Africa. The fact that there are different interpretations means that perceptions of the West by individual African countries will vary. These perceptions may impact foreign policy in the future.

Conclusion
Using particular countries as case studies, the essay has examined the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war. By referring to the peculiarities of these countries, it has shown how the level of connectedness dictates effects. For a more balanced view, countries with profit potential were also included. Therefore, it is submitted that African nations will absorb international shocks based on their relationships with specific circumstances.

Part of the Talking Points at the International Colloquium on Russia-Ukraine War and Implication For Global Security, Pease and New World Order, organized by the Centre for Black Culture and Understanding, Osogbo, Nigeria, March 22, 2022

Falola is a Nigerian historian and professor of African Studies. He is currently the Jacob and Frances Sanger Mossiker Chair in the Humanities at the University of Texas at Austin.

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Opinion

Obama, Clooney, And Gates Should Include Witch Persecution InTheir Campaign

Published

1 day ago

November 27, 2023

NewTimes

Witch Burning, Impunity And Abuses Linked to Witchcraft Beliefs In Benue State

Dr Leo Igwe

By Leo Igwe

The Advocacy for Alleged Witches (AfAW) welcomes the collaboration between the foundations of Michelle Obama, Amal Clooney, and Melinda French Gates to end child marriage in Africa. These foundations have committed to ending this practice within a generation. This initiative, announced during their recent visit to Malawi and South Africa, demonstrates the urgency that such a harmful traditional and cultural practice demands. Child marriage is a sore on the conscience of humanity. It violates the health, rights, and well-being of women and girls. Culture, tradition, or religion should not be used to excuse or justify practices that undermine the humanity of women and girls. So it was a great relief to know that these influential women would be working together to combat this menace.

At the same time, AfAW wants to draw the attention of Obama, Clooney, and Gates to another practice that is undermining the rights of women in Africa: witch persecution. Witchcraft accusation is pervasive in Malawi and other parts of the region. Witchcraft accusation is a gendered phenomenon that predominantly targets women and girls. Those accused of witchcraft are tortured, banished, or murdered in cold blood. In Malawi and other parts of the region, accused women are raped, stoned to death, or lynched. Many accused women are banished and forced to live in make-shift shelters called witch camps in Ghana’s Northern region. In Malawi and the Central African Republic, the accused are imprisoned, or flee to live in prisons to avoid being killed. Rooted in traditional and cultural beliefs, witch hunting is another vicious phenomenon which they said would not be eradicated.

This misperception should be rejected and discarded. This mistaken assumption has prevented international organizations including the UN from treating the problem of witch persecution with the urgency that it deserves. This misrepresentation has made the world ignore and look away while women and sometimes girls are accused, abused, abandoned, or savagely killed in the name of witchcraft. As in the case of child marriage, the Advocacy for Alleged Witches believes that witch persecution can end within a generation. The problem can be solved or resolved in a matter of years. AfAW is working and campaigning to rally national and international political will against witch hunting. That was why the organization announced in 2020 a decade of activism against witch persecution in Africa.

AfAW urges Obama, Clooney, and Gates to join efforts in stopping witch persecution of women and girls. They should know that the girls they are trying to save from being married away as children could end up being stoned to death or buried alive for witchcraft. Obama, Clooney, and Gates should include witch-hunting in their campaign because the practice is rooted in gender injustice and misogyny. The foundations should know that women are likely to suffer child marriages when they are young and witch persecution when they are growing old. So they should not focus on one and ignore the other. To effectively protect and defend the rights of women and girls, they should tackle both child marriage and witch-hunting . The foundations should commit to ending practices that violate the rights of women, whether they are young or old, children or adults.

Dr Igwe directs the Advocacy for Alleged Witches, which campaigns to end witch persecution in Africa by 2030.

Opinion

Powering Prosperity: Unlocking Nigeria’s Potential Through U.S. Partnership

Published

2 days ago

November 27, 2023

NewTimes

Greene is Chargé d’Affaires, a.i. United States Embassy Abuja.

By David Greene

Nigeria is on track to be the world’s fourth-most populous country by 2050. It already has the largest economy in Africa and, with 60 percent of its population under the age of 25, it stands on the threshold of a demographic dividend that can dramatically transform its economy for the better. Nigeria’s strategic partnerships are essential in harnessing this potential, and the United States is playing a leading role. As we near the six-month mark of President Tinubu’s administration, our relationship has emerged as a key for success. One year ago, at the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit in Washington, DC, President Biden renewed our commitment to deepening engagement across the continent. Here is how we are doing that in Nigeria – working in areas that matter most to everyday citizens, such as growing the economy, strengthening democracy, improving health outcomes, ensuring security, and addressing the climate crisis.

Nigeria’s economic potential is vast, and with the right macroeconomic framework, a sound fiscal strategy, and a strong commitment to rooting out corruption, it can become a preferred destination for foreign direct investment. American investors and companies are eager to engage with Nigeria, and the United States government is doing its utmost to build our bilateral trade and investment ties.
Consider these examples: We have joined forces to accelerate Nigeria’s digital transformation, with investments from U.S. tech giants such as Microsoft, Cisco, Meta, Google, and Starlink. This partnership has built a platform to train unemployed and underemployed women and youth. Moreover, it has been a catalyst for quality investment, accounting for more than a quarter of all venture capital flowing into Africa.
Collaborative efforts in agriculture further underscore our commitment. For example, the U.S. Department of Agriculture recently dedicated $22 million to strengthen Nigeria’s cocoa value chain, supporting more than 60,000 cocoa farmers, processors, marketers, and other agribusiness service providers in what is Nigeria’s #2 foreign exchange-earning export. From tech to agriculture, these steps go beyond statistics. They translate into tangible outcomes: good jobs, seed money for new ventures, and higher-value agricultural exports.

The United States is also a steadfast partner in strengthening Nigeria’s health sector. With World AIDS Day – December 1 – approaching, it is worth recalling that over the past two decades, PEPFAR, the leading U.S. initiative to address HIV/AIDS, has invested nearly $8 billion in Nigeria, providing more than 1.6 million individuals with life-saving HIV treatment. In response to COVID-19, the United States donated more than 44 million vaccine doses, helping the Nigerian government approach its target vaccination rate of 70 percent of the eligible population. Partnerships like the U.S. President’s Malaria Initiative, with an annual budget of more than $71 million, have reduced child death rates and strengthened health systems.
Those investments are just part of our overall development assistance to Nigeria. In fiscal year 2022 alone, the U.S. government allocated over $1.2 billion dollars in such support. These funds provide humanitarian assistance, and improve health, economic development, education, social services, democracy, human rights and governance, and peace and security.
In the latter two areas – democracy and security – we aim to support an inclusive future where Nigerian citizens’ votes count and translate into responsive governance, and where they can live in peace. We are a steadfast partner in seeking to strengthen election processes that will enhance accountability to meet citizens’ expectations, and pursuing innovative projects to help communities resolve differences without violence. Through cooperation with and training of Nigeria’s military and police, we are building more capable forces. Collaborating with civil society, law enforcement, and the judiciary, we are confronting the security challenges that stand in the way of economic growth while upholding a shared commitment to human rights. Initiatives include building Nigeria’s counter-terrorism capacity, bringing technology to courtrooms and case-management systems to help in the administration of justice and reduce pre-trial detention, and supporting efforts to enhance accountability and transparency in police forces.

Our partnership to address the climate crisis reflects our mutual recognition of this challenge, and our respect for Nigeria’s role as both an energy producer and a country profoundly impacted by the effects of climate change. In the leadup to COP28 – the 28th Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention for Climate Change, which begins this week – the United States and Nigeria are aggressively seeking solutions. For example, U.S. support for Nigeria’s leadership as a Global Methane Pledge champion has led to action that is reducing greenhouse gas emissions for the benefit of all.
These programs and cooperative efforts advance a joint agenda that is built and driven by the highest levels of our leadership. President Biden met with President Tinubu in September, and numerous senior U.S. officials have come to Nigeria in recent months to confer on meeting Nigeria’s energy needs, driving U.S. trade and investment in Nigeria, and strengthening our law enforcement cooperation. These engagements strengthen our ties, address Nigeria’s pressing needs, and tackle shared challenges.

Ultimately, realizing Nigeria’s potential hinges upon enhancing its fiscal and economic health – and capitalizing on its strategic partnerships to build on that foundation. The opportunity has never been greater. Nigeria, with its youth, energy, and entrepreneurial spirit, is poised to seize this moment. We commend the government for its bold actions thus far to try to move the economy to a more solid footing. The United States is your partner in that effort – through investment, better security, a stronger workforce, and resilient institutions – that benefits all Nigerians and expands prosperity for both our peoples. Our journey ahead has its obstacles, of course. But together we will find a path toward a shared prosperity.

. Greene is Chargé d’Affaires, a.i. United States Embassy Abuja.

Opinion

End Of Progressive Politics

Published

2 days ago

November 26, 2023

NewTimes

Dr Salihu Moh. Lukman

By Salihu Moh. Lukman

The National Working Committee (NWC) of the All Progressives Congress (APC), on Wednesday, November 22, 2023, announced the dissolution of the Rivers State Executives of the party at all levels and appointed a seven-member Caretaker Committee led by Chief Tony Okocha to steer the party’s affairs in the state for the next six months. Interestingly, Chief Okocha who is alleged to be a supporter and political ally of Mr. Nyesom Wike led a delegation of Wike’s loyalists on a courtesy visit to Dr. Ganduje on Thursday, October 6, 2023 where he was reported to have alleged that Chief Rotimi Ameachi, former Governor of Rivers State (2007 – 2015), former Minister of Transport (2015 – 2023), APC Presidential Aspirant for the 2023 general elections and founding member of the APC, worked against President Asiwaju Bola Amed Tinubu in the last election.

Even without these allegations, it is public knowledge that Chief Amaechi has taken a backseat. Apart from Chief Amaechi, many other APC presidential aspirants for the 2023 elections have taken a backseat largely because President Asiwaju Tinubu has not demonstrated any interest to work with them. In the specific case of Chief Amaechi, his political rival in Rivers State, former Governor (2015 – 2023), Barr. Ezenwo Nyesom Wike, since the 2023 general elections has become a strong ally of President Asiwaju Tinubu. Being a strong political ally, Barr. Wike is today the serving Minister of FCT in President Asiwaju Tinubu’s cabinet, if you like the 37th State Governor in Nigeria.

Without any reservation, the reality of Barr. Wike who is a member of the PDP serving in APC Federal Government led by President Asiwaju Tinubu suggests some strong backdoor political negotiations. What could be the details of the negotiations? Could it be that typical of Nigerian politics, APC is negotiating to get Barr. Wike decamp from the PDP and join the APC? Is the APC conceding to hand over structures of the party in Rivers State to Barr. Wike? Even without probing deeper into all these issues, already, some APC leaders in Rivers have opportunistically begun moving their support from Chief Amaechi and now aligning with Barr. Wike. For instance, on Thursday, October 26, 2023, Chief Victor Giadom, APC National Vice Chairman South-South and a long-time ally of Chief Amaechi led a delegation of APC leaders from Rivers State on a courtesy visit to Barr. Wike.

Given all these unfolding developments in APC, it is very clear that the NWC decision, dissolving Rivers State Executives of the party at all levels, is preparing the stage for the emergence of Barr. Wike as the new leader of APC in Rivers State. With Chief Okocha, who is alleged to be a political ally of Barr. Wike given the responsibility of serving as Caretaker Chairman, it simply means that all the new emerging executives for APC at all levels in Rivers State will be Barr. Wike’s supporters. And since Chief Ameachi is a political rival of Barr. Wike, all Chief Ameachi’s supporters must be expelled from the APC.

This is the dirty politics at play in Rivers State. It is very shocking, coming from leaders of a party envisioned to be progressive. Ideally, progressive politicians are expected to be committed to issues of justice and equity. This would require that when there are allegations of anti-party activities against leaders and members, such allegations should be properly investigated. At a personal level, I am one of those who demanded that the NWC should invite the attention of the National Executive Committee (NEC) of APC to review the 2023 general elections and investigate cases of anti-party activities by leaders and members of APC. The inability of Sen. Abdullahi Adamu as the National Chairman to consider many of these demands as part of the requirement to restore constitutional order in APC and return the party to its founding vision was responsible for all the disagreements, I had with Sen. Adamu.

Instead of restoring constitutional order and returning the APC to its founding vision of becoming a progressive , under the leadership of Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, dirty politics of expelling political opponents has taken over. The APC NWC is now abrasive, it takes decisions based on convenience without reference to provisions of the party’s constitution. Simply because allegations of anti-party activities are made by a political opponent who is today the sweetheart of President Asiwaju Tinubu, the allegation is confirmed and all party leaders associated with the alleged person are equally guilty and therefore stand expelled. This is most unfortunate and seriously heartbreaking for all of us who are loyal APC members and look forward to the leadership of President Asiwaju Tinubu for our hope to be Renewed.

As a loyal party member who is strongly committed to progressive politics, my expectation is that provisions of Article 21.3(i – vi) shall be invoked to investigate the allegation of anti-party activities against Chief Amaechi by the NWC. This should have started by appointing a fact-finding committee to examine the matter and report to the NWC. Eventually, given that there are enough grounds to establish a prima facie case of bias by the NWC given that at least one of its members, for whatever reason, Chief Giadom, is biased, in line with provision of Article 21.3(v), the NWC lacks any jurisdiction to decide on such a matter.

The sad reality of all these unfolding development is that, although Article 21.4(i – x) makes sufficient provision for appeals by aggrieved members, with organs of the party frozen and only the NWC functioning, decisions of the NWC are supreme. This simply means a return to former President Olusegun Obasanjo era of garrison politics. How could this be happening in APC with President Asiwaju Tinubu as the leader? Is President Asiwaju Tinubu not a progressive politician? Or did he just use the acronym (progressive) to achieve his life ambition of becoming the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria?

It is very troubling to ask these questions, largely because these were questions, we asked when former President Buhari was the leader of the party, but we were ashamed to accept the harsh reality that our elected leaders, and by extension our party, have failed Nigerians. As loyal party members, we had the hope that the emergence of President Asiwaju Tinubu as the new leader of our party would correct and heal all our troubles. When President Asiwaju proposed Renewed Hope as his campaign slogan, party members welcomed it with the belief that we were returning to the founding vision of the party, which would rekindle the era of progressive politics in the country.

Being someone who professes to be a disciple of the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo, one of the founding fathers of our great nation and incontestably the forebearer of progressive politics, we had no doubt that the leadership of President Asiwaju Tinubu would return APC to its founding vision. Part of the expectation of many of us in the APC was that at the minimum internal debate within the party will be strong and decision-making process in the party will take its bearing from positions being canvassed. The first shocker was when after the resignation of Sen. Abdullahi Adamu and Sen. Iyiola Omisore as National Chairman and National Secretary of the party respectively, Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje emerged as the nominee of President Asiwaju Tinubu, taking away the position of National Chairman from North-Central to North-West in a very crude way.

Apart from violating an internal zoning agreement within the APC, moving the APC National Chairman from North-Central to North-West in the manner that it was done was simply contemptuous of the people of North-Central. This is the kind of decisions that can only be taken under a military rule. Having taken such a decision, one expects a review of the internal zoning arrangement within the APC to attempt to pacify the people of North-Central. At the minimum for instance, the position of Deputy Senate President, which is currently being occupied by Sen. Barau Jibrin who comes from Kano State where Dr. Ganduje comes from should have been moved to North Central. Instead, it is just business-as-usual.

Again, at a personal level, I cannot but ask the question, did President Asiwaju Tinubu support the removal of Sen. Adamu simply because he wanted to impose someone like Dr. Ganduje as the National Chairman of the APC simply because he needed someone who will not say no to him even when it means destroying the party? Could that be responsible for why President Asiwaju Tinubu has become completely inaccessible to virtually all party leaders? If President Asiwaju Tinubu is commencing his leadership tenure by embracing garrison politics, what will be the coloration of his leadership by the end of his tenure in May 2027? Given such a circumstance, will he be aspiring for a second term?

Perhaps, it is important to recall that former President Obasanjo pretended to be a democrat throughout his first term. The organs of the PDP during his first term were very functional and fully in charge. The dynamics of negotiating a second term in 2003, which compelled former President Obasanjo to have to subordinate himself to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar were mainly responsible for the high level of political intolerance that characterised the second term of former President Obasanjo between 2003 and 2007. As an administration that was intolerant, it became more and more unpopular. Being intolerant, it blocked almost every opening for internal debate within the PDP. Imposition of candidates for election took over. Consequently, winning elections was all about vote buying, rigging, manipulating elections, and writing results.

No need to revisit all our ugly electoral past. But APC won its popularity and won the 2015 general elections incontestably because Nigerians trusted the APC when it came with the promise of change. Certainly, under the leadership of former President Buhari, both as Nigerians and members of APC, we were highly frustrated that the promise of change didn’t manifest itself strongly such that the problem of imposition of candidates by political parties, especially by our own party APC is minimised. If anything, instead of changing Nigerian politics, what we witnessed between 2015 and now is that our promising party, APC, has changed to become PDP incorporated in every respect.

If anything, the decision of the NWC dissolving Rivers State executives at all levels confirms this reality. If allowed to stand, stage-managed congresses will be organised to produce new party executives at all levels who will be loyal to Barr. Wike, the new APC leader in Rivers State. Accordingly, in 2027, Barr. Wike will produce the APC Governorship candidate for Rivers State. Since Barr. Wike has already fallen apart with the current Rivers State Governor, Chief Siminalayi Fubara, the prospect of Chief Fubara coming to APC is foreclosed. Therefore, the strategy of APC in Rivers State for 2027 will be to further fragment the people of the state. Rather than working to unite political leaders in Rivers State, based on which APC being an envisioned progressive party will be seeking to unite Chief Amaechi and Barr. Wike to be members of APC, President Asiwaju Tinubu’s garrison politics will only seek to take advantage of the current division between Chief Amaechi and Barr. Wike. In addition, Barr. Wike will have to incur the political cost of separating from his political godson, Chief Fubara. Even if Chief Fubara achieved all that needs to be achieved as Governor of Rivers State, President Asiwaju Tinubu’s garrison politics will emasculate him.

For all these to be imagined under the leadership of President Asiwaju Tinubu, who is regarded to be a progressive politician and a descendant of Chief Awolowo will make Chief Awolowo to turn in his grave. Even Chief M. K. O Abiola would have difficulty relating with many of the political decisions taken by President Asiwaju Tinubu in the last six months. At this rate, President Asiwaju Tinubu is practically pushing Nigerians to bid bye bye to progressive politics. With such a reality, it simply means, the structures of APC in FCT will also be dissolved to produce new APC leaders at all levels of the party who will be loyal to Barr. Wike. And any state where APC is led by people who might have opposed President Asiwaju Tinubu will similarly be dissolved. Once the circle of imposing stooges as APC leaders at all levels is completed, which started with imposing Dr. Ganduje as National Chairman, the next level of imposition will spread to all other democratic institutions to guarantee the supremacy of garrison politics, which will then affirm all the political choices of APC under the leadership of President Asiwaju Tinubu, whatever that means.

This is anything, but progressive politics. With a garrison brand of progressive politics, problems of political divisions in the country will be entrenched. Addressing challenges of marginalisation, inequality and above all welfare of citizens will not be a political priority. At this rate, it will be safer for the country to conclude that APC, as it is constituted today will be incapable of meeting the expectations of Nigerians. Renewed Hope has invariably produced Dashed hope. This is very unfortunate. APC under the leadership of President Asiwaju Tinubu, as it is constituted today, wasn’t the APC we sold to Nigerians both in 2015 and 2023.

Something must be done urgently to arrest the current drift towards garrison politics in the name of progressive politics. It is either APC leaders take the needed steps to call both Dr. Ganduje, the APC NWC and President Asiwaju Tinubu to order by restoring constitutional order and returning the party to its founding vision of progressive politics, which should be about unity of party leaders and Nigerians, or the party can as well declare an end to progressive politics in Nigeria. So long as the decision of the NWC to dissolve all party executives in Rivers State at all levels is allowed to stand, it simply means that anyone who is alleged to have worked against President Asiwaju Tinubu during the 2023 elections is expelled from the party. With such a declaration, the culture of imposition of candidates at all levels will take over APC. Consequently, elections will not be about the votes of citizens. Winners in elections will only be produced through rigging, vote buying and other manipulative strategies. The earlier every genuine APC leader comes to terms with this new reality and begin the process of mobilisation both within the party and at wider levels of national political mobilisation, the better for the survival of democracy in country. A stitch in time, saves nine!